Social Leverage Letter | Issue #33

Taking Twitter Private (Or Not), Fear Factor, the Marketplace 100, the Perfect Pitch, Managing Risk, and the Fed Put

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“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.”

~ Elon Musk

UPFRONT 

Elon Musk offers $43 billion in cash to take Twitter private

You would have to be living under a rock, or just not on Twitter that much, to not know Elon Musk put a bid in to take Twitter ($TWTR) private this week. Musk offered $54.20 in cash according to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

Why it matters: Elon believes Twitter has the potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and the only way to ensure the company thrives is to take it private

  • Free speech is imperative for democracy.

  • Twitter needs to be transformed.

"Twitter has extraordinary potential.  I will unlock it." Elon wrote in the SEC filing. Yes, but Twitter has turned to the time-tested poison pill in an effort to thwart Elon.

ICYMI: An unedited conversation between Elon Musk and TED's Chris Anderson. (Recorded April 14, 2022)

READING

The right kind of fear

Psychological safety is a factor contributing to high performance, yet it’s unhelpful to prioritize that above all else. Former Intel CEO Andy Grove believed the right kind of fear, the fear of losing, can play a productive role. It can be a powerful motivator.  

The Marketplace 100

Andreessen Horowitz published its Marketplace 100 for 2022. This marks their third year releasing the Marketplace 100, a ranking of the largest consumer-facing marketplace startups and private companies. Four categories have emerged from 2021 that are worth watching: Ticketing and Experiences; Shopping and Commerce; Games; and the growing world of web3 marketplaces. 

From our blog

Learn everything you need to know about creating an effective pitch. First, what is pitching and when do you use it? Second, what differentiates a good pitch from a bad pitch? And third, which pitch and when do you use it?

LISTENING:

The Tim Ferriss Show

“The idea that we want to mitigate risk to zero before we act is really common and really costly.” ~ General Stanley McChrystal

Why it matters: Building a risk immune system is critical for individuals and organizations. Risk control factors like communication, narrative, action, and bias to name a few, are all part of how well you can detect, assess, and mitigate risks. 

Start with communication. There are four tests leaders and teams can use to evaluate their communication:

  • Can I get my message to the people I’m trying to communicate to?

  • Will I communicate my message?

  • Can the person receive and understand my message?

  • Is my message timely and accurate?

The bottom line: Of the ten risk control factors identified by General McChrystal, communication and leadership are the two most important. If we sense threats but can’t communicate, we are unable to do anything about it.

(Note: My former boss took issue with the podcast title saying, "You can never master risk. You can only manage it.")

#535: General Stanley McChrystal — Mastering Risk: A User's Guide

Listen to this episode from The Tim Ferriss Show on Spotify. General Stanley McChrystal — Mastering Risk: A User's Guide | Brought to you by Kettle & Fire high quality, tasty, and conveniently packaged bone broths; Eight Sleep’s Pod Pro Cover sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating; and ShipStation shipping software. More on all three below.General Stanley McChrystal (@stanmcchrystal) was called “one of America’s greatest warriors” by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Having held leadership and staff positions in the Army Special Forces, Army Rangers, 82nd Airborne Division, the XVIII Army Airborne Corp, and the Joint Staff, McChrystal became commander of JSOC in 2003, responsible for leading the nation’s deployed military counterterrorism efforts around the globe. His leadership is credited with the 2003 capture of Saddam Hussein and the 2006 locating and killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. In June 2009, McChrystal received his fourth star and assumed command of all international forces in Afghanistan.General McChrystal founded the McChrystal Group in January 2011, an advisory services firm that helps businesses challenge the hierarchical “command and control” approach to organizational management.He is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, where he teaches a course on leadership, and he is the author of the bestselling leadership books My Share of the Task: A Memoir; Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World; and Leaders: Myth and Reality. His new book is Risk: A User’s Guide. He is also the co-host (with former Navy SEAL Chris Fussell) of the No Turning Back podcast, where they explore the future of leadership and teams with the world’s most consequential leaders.Please enjoy!This episode is brought to you by Kettle & Fire! Kettle & Fire makes one of the highest quality, tastiest, and most conveniently packaged bone broths on the market, and I have a huge collection of their broths on my kitchen counter for easy access. I’ve been a fan ever since 2015, when podcast guest and ketogenesis expert Dr. Dominic D’Agostino introduced me to the company. Their products fit me and my lifestyle extremely well: bone broth is a great ‘one-stop shop’ for low-carb, high-protein nutrition, and bone broth makes an excellent lower-calorie breakfast that requires no prep.It’s one of the simplest ways to get many of the nutrients I need, and I simply feel better when broth is a regular part of my diet. You can save 25% off your order by going to KettleAndFire.com/Tim and using code TIM at checkout.*This episode is also brought to you by ShipStation. Do you sell stuff online? Then you know what a pain the shipping process is. ShipStation was created to make your life easier. Whether you’re selling on eBay, Amazon, Shopify, or over 100 other popular selling channels, ShipStation lets you access all of your orders from one simple dashboard, and it works with all of the major shipping carriers, locally and globally, including FedEx, UPS, and USPS. Tim Ferriss Show listeners get to try ShipStation free for 60 days by using promo code TIM. There’s no risk, and you can start your free trial without even entering your credit card info. Just visit ShipStation.com, click on the microphone at the top of the homepage, and type in TIM!*This episode is also brought to you by Eight Sleep! Eight Sleep’s Pod Pro Cover is the easiest and fastest way to sleep at the perfect temperature. It pairs dynamic cooling and heating with biometric tracking to offer the most advanced (and user-friendly) solution on the market. Simply add the Pod Pro Cover to your current mattress and start sleeping as cool as 55°F or as hot as 110°F. It also splits your bed in half, so your partner can choose a totally different temperature.And now, my dear listeners—that’s you—can get $250 off the Pod Pro Cover. Simply go to EightSleep.com/Tim or use code TIM. *If you enjoy the podcast, would you please consider leaving a short review on Apple Podcasts? It takes less than 60 seconds, and it really makes a difference in helping to convince hard-to-get guests. I also love reading the reviews!For show notes and past guests, please visit tim.blog/podcast.Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (“5-Bullet Friday”) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss YouTube: youtube.com/timferrissPast guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, and many more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Panic with Friends

Howard and Marc discuss the ‘Fed Put’ and an era of low rates that coincides with a period of phenomenal tech innovation. At the end of the day, the Fed drives interest rates and interest rates drive valuations. They also discuss the current state of private market investment values as well as the lending side of fintech, growth, and the cloud-based economy. 

Marc Rubinstein of Net Interest on the Fed, Markets, Fintech, and the Economy (EP.197)

Listen to this episode from Panic with Friends - Howard Lindzon on Spotify. I went a little selfish with this episode and geeked out with a super smart person on the Fed, the markets, tech, fintech, lending and the economy. I’m talking with one of my favorite financial bloggers, Marc Rubinstein. Marc is retired from Lansdowne Partners, one of Europe’s largest hedge funds. While there, he advised on a US $4 billion global long/short financials equity fund. Now Marc is an active value investor and early-stage fintech investor, as well as the author of the popular weekly financial newsletter, Net Interest. He’s also a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did.  Guest - Marc Rubinstein, Finance writer at Netinterest - Weekly newsletter on financial sector themes, and Former Hedge Fund Manager.  howardlindzon.com, netinterest.co Twitter: @howardlindzon, @PanicwFriends, @MarcRuby, @knutjensen  linkedin.com/in/marc-rubinstein  #fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance  Show Notes: (00:39) – Intro (04:33) – Welcome Marc (05:07) – Best part of living in London (06:14) – Getting started in the markets (09:05) – Top-down thinking about risk (11:47) – Panicking about the Fed panicking (16:17) – The lending side of fintech (23:15) – Private investment & the IPO market (29:43) – Growth and the cloud-based economy (33:17) – Multiple disruptions of Western Union (34:40) – Circling back to the Fed (37:06) – Banks actually do go bust (38:54) – Wrapping up (40:31) – Closing thoughts 

WATCHING:

Ferrari Monza SP1 ($RACE)

The Ferrari Monza SP1 is a limited production single-seat sports car. The Monza’s design is inspired by the 750 Monza, 250 Testarossa, and the 166 MM. Production is reportedly limited to 499 units.

Details: The SP1 is a single-seat, carbon fiber speedster. And thank God for that. No obnoxious passengers to pacify; and no, you can’t drive mine! The SP1 doesn’t have a windshield and instead relies on Ferrari’s patented “Virtual Windshield” which deviates airflow away from the driver. The car is inspired by early, post-war Ferrari race cars. Ferrari Styling Centre was awarded the Compasso d’Oro industrial design award for the Monza SP1 in 2020.

The engine is a naturally aspirated 6.5L V12 generating 799 hp at 8,500 rpm and 530 lb-ft of torque at 7,000 rpm

Watch Demented Doug DeMuro, aka “Triple D” (that’s my nickname for him) do a good job reviewing the Monza SP1, along with taking a drive to show viewers what it’s like behind the wheel. And maybe we can get portfolio company (Fund III) Rally to buy one? 

WHAT WE'RE READING

Here's what caught our eye over the past week.

JOB BOARD

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Featured Jobs:

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Affiliate Disclosure: Social Leverage Group, LLC ("SLG"), Social Leverage Capital Fund I, LP ("SLC"), Social Leverage Capital Fund II, LP ("SLCII"), Social Leverage Capital Fund III, LP ("SLCIII") and Social Leverage Capital Fund IV, LP ("SLCIV") are all distinct entities from Social Leverage, LLC ("SL"). Social Leverage is not a registered investment advisor. SLC, SLCII, SLCIII, SLCIV, SLG and SL have used the logo and branding of Social Leverage with the permission of Social Leverage Group, LLC.